The median short-term rental in Big Bear Lake grosses about $46,000 a year — roughly $319 a night at about 38% occupancy. But gross revenue isn't what you keep. After management, cleaning, transient occupancy tax, permit fees, fire-zone insurance, propane, snow removal, and winter utilities, a cabin grossing $50,000 typically nets in the low to mid $20,000s before the mortgage. The cabins that beat the median are the well-run, well-located ones — and right now, an 11-month supply of inventory gives you real leverage to buy one at the right basis.
By Rachael Smith | September 24, 2026
Here's the mistake I watch investors make from both directions.
Someone hears "$46,000 a year" and gets excited, then overpays for a cabin that will never hit it. Someone else hears the same number, decides it isn't enough, and walks away from a deal that would have paid them for a decade.
I sell these cabins. I own short-term rentals myself, and I'm an Airbnb Superhost. So these aren't numbers off a spreadsheet I found online — this is what these properties actually do month to month, in every season, including the slow ones nobody posts about.
Let's run the real math.
Third-party trackers like AirDNA put the median Big Bear Lake short-term rental right around $46,000 a year, on an average nightly rate near $319 and occupancy around 38%.
That median hides things in both directions.
Pulling the number down: part-time rentals where owners block half the calendar for their own trips, and tired two-bedrooms listed with dark iPhone photos and no hot tub.
Pulling it up: a professionally managed four- or five-bedroom in Moonridge or Boulder Bay, walkable to the slopes, with a hot tub and a game room. Those cabins clear the median without much drama.
So treat $46,000 as a starting line, not a forecast. Watch Rachael break down the revenue numbers at 1:03.
Your number depends on three things: the cabin, the location, and how you run it. If you want to see how that plays out on a specific property type, I walked through the same exercise on what an A-frame cabin actually earns as a Big Bear Airbnb.
This is the part that gets glossed over, because gross revenue is not what lands in your pocket.
Start with management. If you're not local and you hand the property to a full-service manager, that's 20% to 30% of revenue off the top before anything else happens.
Then stack on the rest:
Stack all of that up and a cabin grossing $50,000 might net you somewhere in the low to mid $20,000s — before your mortgage. Watch Rachael walk through the true operating costs at 2:05.
That's not a bad number. It's a very different number than $50,000. And if you underwrite the deal at $50,000, you'll be disappointed by March.
Budget for the tax side too, especially your first year — California's reassessment catches new owners off guard, which is why I wrote up what buyers pay on a California supplemental property tax bill.
Want the real numbers on Big Bear short-term rentals before you write an offer? I break down revenue data, operating costs, and permit rules every week on my YouTube channel. Subscribe here so you're running the same math I run for my investor clients.
Here's the piece most people miss right now: Big Bear is a buyer's market. A real one.
As of today there's almost 11 months of inventory sitting on the market. The median home takes around 97 days to sell. Roughly 72% of homes close under list price, and only about 10% go over asking.
What that means for an investor is simple. You have the leverage on the buy.
And in this business, the return isn't made when you sell. It's made when you buy.
Every $10,000 you negotiate off the purchase price lowers your basis, lowers your payment, and lowers the occupancy you need just to break even. Watch Rachael explain the buyer's-market leverage at 3:12.
So the softness that's scaring off nervous buyers is exactly the opportunity for someone running real numbers. The current data backs it up — see the latest Big Bear real estate market update for where inventory and closed sales actually sit.
So how do you tell whether a specific cabin pencils out? Three checks, every time, before you're emotionally attached to it.
If the cabin still carries itself at conservative occupancy, you've got a real deal.
If it only works when every weekend books at peak rate, you don't have an investment. You have hope. And hope is not a strategy. Watch Rachael walk through the stress test at 4:10.
There's more to check before you commit to a mountain property — I covered the rest in 4 things nobody tells you before buying a cabin in Big Bear Lake.
That's the whole truth about Big Bear short-term rentals. The good ones are genuinely good. The bad ones photograph exactly the same way.
The entire game is knowing the difference before you own it — pulling the real permit status, the real trailing revenue, and running conservative numbers on a specific cabin. That's the work I do with investor clients, and it's the work I walk through property by property on my channel.
Run the real numbers. Buy right. This market will pay you for it.
If you want to see how this analysis looks on actual Big Bear listings week after week, subscribe to the channel here. And when you're ready to run the numbers on a specific cabin, call or text me at 909-744-2190.
About Rachael Smith
Rachael Smith is a top-producing real estate agent with RE/MAX Big Bear, specializing in mountain homes, short-term rental investments, and luxury properties in Big Bear Lake and surrounding areas. With over a decade of experience and hundreds of homes sold, she helps buyers, sellers, and investors make smart, strategic real estate decisions. Through her strong online presence and data-driven approach, Rachael connects clients with opportunities both on and off the market. CA DRE #01923537.
